Аналитический обзор методов оценки агроэкологического потенциала сельскохозяйственных ландшафтов
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32523/qesah507Ключевые слова:
агроэкологический потенциал, сельскохозяйственные ландшафты, климатический потенциал продуктивности, климатическая модель, географические информационные системы, дистанционное зондирование, устойчивое сельское хозяйствоАннотация
Устойчивое развитие сельскохозяйственного производства непосредственно зависит от эффективного использования природных ресурсов, научно обоснованной оценки климатических рисков и достоверного определения агроэкологического потенциала сельскохозяйственных ландшафтов. В условиях глобального изменения климата, деградации земельных ресурсов, дефицита водных ресурсов и усиления антропогенного воздействия совершенствование методов оценки агроэкологического потенциала становится одним из приоритетных направлений современной аграрной науки. Вместе с тем теоретические основы, особенности применения и взаимосвязи математических, биофизических, энергетических, статистических и геоинформационных моделей, используемых в международной научной литературе, до настоящего времени не получили достаточной систематизации.
Целью настоящего исследования является проведение систематического аналитического обзора современных методов оценки агроэкологического потенциала сельскохозяйственных ландшафтов. Исследование основано на сравнительном анализе, научном синтезе и методологической систематизации теоретических основ, принципов расчета, особенностей применения, преимуществ и ограничений существующих подходов к оценке.
Анализ научной литературы показал, что методы оценки агроэкологического потенциала прошли эволюционный путь развития -от простых эмпирических моделей до комплексных подходов, объединяющих пространственно-временной анализ, данные дистанционного зондирования Земли, географические информационные системы, материалы повторного анализа ERA5, статистическое моделирование и цифровые технологии. Систематически рассмотрены значение моделей Miami и Thornthwaite Memorial для оценки климатического потенциала продуктивности, роль показателей NPP, PNPP, HNPP и CRUE при оценке биологической продуктивности, а также эффективность методов Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope, GTWR и LMG при выявлении пространственно-временных закономерностей. Кроме того, обоснована важность применения данных дистанционного зондирования Земли, географических информационных систем и технологий цифрового мониторинга для повышения точности и достоверности агроэкологических оценок.
В результате исследования систематизированы теоретические и методологические основы оценки агроэкологического потенциала и обоснованы научные преимущества комплексного применения различных методов. Показано, что интеграция различных моделей позволяет более точно оценивать продуктивный потенциал природных ресурсов, достоверно прогнозировать влияние климатических изменений и формировать научно обоснованные подходы к планированию и устойчивому развитию сельскохозяйственного производства.
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